I think the new World’s Wrongest Person has to be Gore. They showed that ridiculous movie of his in schools like it was a documentary and scared the crap out of a whole generation of kids. But then, like with Trump and Fauci, it’s hard to tell who was “wrong” and who was just a big lying liar faced bleepity bleep bleeping bleep. That reminds me of the comedian Adam Carolla’s bit, often deployed discussing various politicians, he calls “Stupid or Liar”.
Not sure Trump is so much a liar as a BSer. I really don't think he believes 90% of what he says. Doe he really believe he could shoot someone on Fifth Ave and wouldn't lose any votes? No. It's all BS and he knows it. Now, Ehrlich and Gore, those guys are true believers who could never admit to being wrong. (Ok, Trump wouldn't either, but he knows it's BS)
Kunstler is a prominent critic of suburban sprawl and a major proponent of the "Peak Oil" theory, which posits that humanity is about to run out of oil and suffer a brutal societal regression.
Kunstler was one of the loudest voices warning that the Y2K computer bug would trigger global structural failure, a collapse of the power grid, and riots.
In his 2005 book The Long Emergency, he predicted that by the 2010s, oil scarcity would force Americans to abandon suburbs, cars, and commercial aviation, reverting to localized, pre-industrial farming. Instead, the U.S. fracking boom turned America into a net exporter of oil, and global energy production reached all-time highs.
An intellectual who made famously erroneous predictions similar to Paul Ehrlich was Thomas Robert Malthus, an 18th-century British political economist.
In his 1798 work, An Essay on the Principle of Population, Malthus argued that human population grows geometrically (exponentially), while food production can only ever increase arithmetically (linearly). He predicted that unchecked population growth would inevitably trigger mass starvation, war, and disease—a collapse known as a "Malthusian trap."
Both Malthus and Ehrlich viewed humans strictly as consumers of a static pie rather than problem-solvers who could expand it. They entirely failed to anticipate human ingenuity, innovation, and technological breakthroughs.
Malthus did not foresee the Industrial Revolution or the massive agricultural advancements that followed. Similarly, Ehrlich wrote off countries like India in his 1968 book The Population Bomb, completely missing the onset of the Green Revolution led by agronomist Norman Borlaug. Instead of widespread starvation, global per-capita food production actually rose significantly.
Thank you for an appropriate send-up of Ehrlich. He was proof that if you're politically correct and say what the media approve of, being wrong is no handicap to your advancement. I remember his losing all those bets he made with Professor Julian Simon.
As for the current "Wrongest Person," I'm having a hard time thinking of just one--I'll nominate everyone the mainstream media. Like Ehrlich, it doesn't matter how many times they're wrong, they'll keep on plugging away. In honor of him, let's agree to call it the "Paul R. Ehrlich World's Wrongest Man" award!
The AI utopians will probably turn out to be mega-wrong, sure... because AI utopianism has to be correct in essentially EVERY major point in order to be correct overall. (What do you call a utopia with one or more major systemic flaws? A dystopia.)
As for whether you should bet against the AI doomers with equally blithe confidence... Do bear in mind that the AI doomers only have to be right ONCE—about exactly one thing, possibly even only about one aspect of one thing—in order to win the grand prize of infinity I-tokf-you-so's. (E.g., if 999,999,999 vibe-coded highly contagious lethal human pathogens are all laughably clownish failures, while 1 of them turns out to be fundamentally capable of performing its job description, then, arrivederci sayōnara, it's been fun.)
I think the new World’s Wrongest Person has to be Gore. They showed that ridiculous movie of his in schools like it was a documentary and scared the crap out of a whole generation of kids. But then, like with Trump and Fauci, it’s hard to tell who was “wrong” and who was just a big lying liar faced bleepity bleep bleeping bleep. That reminds me of the comedian Adam Carolla’s bit, often deployed discussing various politicians, he calls “Stupid or Liar”.
Ya, I almost mentioned that Trump belongs with Fauci but it's hard to tell what he believes and what he's just making up.
I am not familiar with that bit, I will have to look it up. Thanks!
You can’t be wrong when you know you are lying. Al Gore has clearly known he was lying about the climate by observing his own lifestyle choices.
Not sure Trump is so much a liar as a BSer. I really don't think he believes 90% of what he says. Doe he really believe he could shoot someone on Fifth Ave and wouldn't lose any votes? No. It's all BS and he knows it. Now, Ehrlich and Gore, those guys are true believers who could never admit to being wrong. (Ok, Trump wouldn't either, but he knows it's BS)
My vote goes to Gore.
Yes, that is a clear example of bullshitting. I was thinking of tariffs when I suggested him. I think he honestly believes they work.
James Howard Kunstler
Kunstler is a prominent critic of suburban sprawl and a major proponent of the "Peak Oil" theory, which posits that humanity is about to run out of oil and suffer a brutal societal regression.
Kunstler was one of the loudest voices warning that the Y2K computer bug would trigger global structural failure, a collapse of the power grid, and riots.
In his 2005 book The Long Emergency, he predicted that by the 2010s, oil scarcity would force Americans to abandon suburbs, cars, and commercial aviation, reverting to localized, pre-industrial farming. Instead, the U.S. fracking boom turned America into a net exporter of oil, and global energy production reached all-time highs.
Yes, I wrote about "Peak Oil" here:
https://hoisttheblackflag.substack.com/p/the-importance-of-skepticism
I didn't mention Kunstler though.
An intellectual who made famously erroneous predictions similar to Paul Ehrlich was Thomas Robert Malthus, an 18th-century British political economist.
In his 1798 work, An Essay on the Principle of Population, Malthus argued that human population grows geometrically (exponentially), while food production can only ever increase arithmetically (linearly). He predicted that unchecked population growth would inevitably trigger mass starvation, war, and disease—a collapse known as a "Malthusian trap."
Both Malthus and Ehrlich viewed humans strictly as consumers of a static pie rather than problem-solvers who could expand it. They entirely failed to anticipate human ingenuity, innovation, and technological breakthroughs.
Malthus did not foresee the Industrial Revolution or the massive agricultural advancements that followed. Similarly, Ehrlich wrote off countries like India in his 1968 book The Population Bomb, completely missing the onset of the Green Revolution led by agronomist Norman Borlaug. Instead of widespread starvation, global per-capita food production actually rose significantly.
Thanks, did not know of that statement by Deutscher. It’s a real keeper.
Wrongest? Spoiled for choice. I will only pick this guy cause he scared hell out of me for nothing on Earth Day, years ago.
“civilization will end within 15 or 30 years unless immediate action is taken against problems facing mankind.”
-George Wald, biologist
Had to look him up. Ya, there seems to have been a number of these doomers coming out of the 1960s - what a great decade, eh?
How much damage did their arrogance cause?
Thank you for an appropriate send-up of Ehrlich. He was proof that if you're politically correct and say what the media approve of, being wrong is no handicap to your advancement. I remember his losing all those bets he made with Professor Julian Simon.
As for the current "Wrongest Person," I'm having a hard time thinking of just one--I'll nominate everyone the mainstream media. Like Ehrlich, it doesn't matter how many times they're wrong, they'll keep on plugging away. In honor of him, let's agree to call it the "Paul R. Ehrlich World's Wrongest Man" award!
The media as a group of organizations is a good nomination. Thanks.
The AI utopians will probably turn out to be mega-wrong, sure... because AI utopianism has to be correct in essentially EVERY major point in order to be correct overall. (What do you call a utopia with one or more major systemic flaws? A dystopia.)
As for whether you should bet against the AI doomers with equally blithe confidence... Do bear in mind that the AI doomers only have to be right ONCE—about exactly one thing, possibly even only about one aspect of one thing—in order to win the grand prize of infinity I-tokf-you-so's. (E.g., if 999,999,999 vibe-coded highly contagious lethal human pathogens are all laughably clownish failures, while 1 of them turns out to be fundamentally capable of performing its job description, then, arrivederci sayōnara, it's been fun.)
True but the nuclear apocalypse doomers only have to be right once too and yet worry over it has no impact on my sleep.
I'm trying to think of the last time any dystopian predictions came true.
The expert class will have us all eating dirt if it's up to them.