Don't forget the individual states that just flipped blue (Texas, e.g.) that are now all gung-ho to strip gun rights. Look for Congress to push a national Red Flag Law or something similar. Also keep an eye on Richard Pan from California to shill for Big Pharma even harder now that he's in DC and to push something akin to the vax mandate and to strip doctor and patient rights like he did when he was in Sacramento.
They *might* remove the Filibuster, which would fuck them if the Senate flips in '28, which isn't mathematically impossible.
They can't *possibly* be stupid enough to try and pack the Supreme Court right *now*, since it's the President who makes nominations.
I could see Student Loan "relief" as making another round. I wouldn't even particularly object, if they did it by clawing back money paid to Universities who handed out worthless degrees to students. Or dealing with the problem for the future by outlawing federal student loans and making student loan debt dischargeable in bankruptcy. Yes, I know that neither of those options are anything they would actually *do*, but they are *my* preferred solutions to that problem. 🤪
Wealth Tax would play well with the base, and might even get some draw from what is now the GOP base, but I'm sure it would get vetoed, so it doesn't seem worth expending the political capital on.
> The fact that he’s blaming the Iran War, Trump’s baby, for the midterm losses may be an indication that he realizes this.
I don't know that Vance had much choice in that, not if he wanted to come off as credible at all. Mostly because everyone already fucking *knows* that was a big chunk of what did it. The midterms had two major factors for the GOP. One was the GOP congress (and the senate in particular) being a bunch of feckless poltroons and not doing their fucking job. They didn't pass any of the stuff that was immensely popular even with Democrat voters, like the SAVE Act, and they did almost nothing (or possibly *literally* nothing, I'd have to check a detailed record to be certain) to actually codify any of Trump's Executive Orders about things that people found pleasing. They did nothing to make the deportation campaign go more smoothly, such as removing review of such cases from the purview of congressionally created lower federal courts. And "Deport All The Illegals" was wildly popular with the voters in '24 as well. They did very little (or again, possibly nothing at all) to help with affordability for their poorest voters especially, or any of their voters in general.
The other was the Iran War making everything more expensive as well. Some people would have been mad at Trump for breaking his promise about "no new wars" if he'd picked a fight with, say, Tajikistan or Azerbaijan, but it wouldn't have been *as* big a deal to most people because it wouldn't have closed the Hormuz Strait. But it was Iran, and they did, and people felt it. And not just in the obvious way, when they hit the gas pump, but in all the ways that high fuel prices translate down the ladder for the shipping prices of goods, the increased price of goods due to the increased price of shipping their raw materials and manufacturing them, and so forth. High fuel prices affect people personally, and also the price of anything that moves by truck, train, plane, or ship, or is *made* with things that move by truck, train, plane, or ship.
I know you already know this. But if Vance had *denied* that it was the Iran War, he'd have come across as fundamentally unserious. The GOP *might* have survived one of those factors. It stood zero chance of surviving both.
> For that reason, I think Rubio has the best chance at being the nominee.
My top two picks here are Rubio and DeSantis. It says a *lot* about DeSantis' skills as a leader and administrator that in a Midterm season that saw a vicious Bluenami that wiped out *Texas* government at the state level, Florida stayed red. But DeSantis might also not desire to stick his dick into the meat grinder of 2028. It sort of depends on just *how* badly the Democrats cock things up in the next two years, and just *how* hard they double back down on the Woke BS.
> How the economy is performing two years from now is also important. As is who ends up losing the “Whose Crazier War,” the Democrats or Trump.
Those seem likely to be very, very critical factors.
FWIW, Ossoff is *also* Jewish. I just had a conversation with Gemini about him, and he doesn't offer much to appeal to me other than an opposition to members of Congress trading on the stock market, and opposition to ALPRs. And, somewhat betraying my hardcore libertarian free-market bona-fides, opposition to large corporations buying vast swathes of single family homes.
But he's a hardcore anti-gunner, so that's a hard no for me.
As for who actually *wins*... *throws hands up* I have no fuckin' clue. All I know is that chances are good the rest of us lose.
You had me at Rubio and all his hats. 😉
Well said.
Awwwwww, man. My comment was *way* funnier when there was no post body... 🤪
Don't forget the individual states that just flipped blue (Texas, e.g.) that are now all gung-ho to strip gun rights. Look for Congress to push a national Red Flag Law or something similar. Also keep an eye on Richard Pan from California to shill for Big Pharma even harder now that he's in DC and to push something akin to the vax mandate and to strip doctor and patient rights like he did when he was in Sacramento.
In reverse order:
They *might* remove the Filibuster, which would fuck them if the Senate flips in '28, which isn't mathematically impossible.
They can't *possibly* be stupid enough to try and pack the Supreme Court right *now*, since it's the President who makes nominations.
I could see Student Loan "relief" as making another round. I wouldn't even particularly object, if they did it by clawing back money paid to Universities who handed out worthless degrees to students. Or dealing with the problem for the future by outlawing federal student loans and making student loan debt dischargeable in bankruptcy. Yes, I know that neither of those options are anything they would actually *do*, but they are *my* preferred solutions to that problem. 🤪
Wealth Tax would play well with the base, and might even get some draw from what is now the GOP base, but I'm sure it would get vetoed, so it doesn't seem worth expending the political capital on.
> The fact that he’s blaming the Iran War, Trump’s baby, for the midterm losses may be an indication that he realizes this.
I don't know that Vance had much choice in that, not if he wanted to come off as credible at all. Mostly because everyone already fucking *knows* that was a big chunk of what did it. The midterms had two major factors for the GOP. One was the GOP congress (and the senate in particular) being a bunch of feckless poltroons and not doing their fucking job. They didn't pass any of the stuff that was immensely popular even with Democrat voters, like the SAVE Act, and they did almost nothing (or possibly *literally* nothing, I'd have to check a detailed record to be certain) to actually codify any of Trump's Executive Orders about things that people found pleasing. They did nothing to make the deportation campaign go more smoothly, such as removing review of such cases from the purview of congressionally created lower federal courts. And "Deport All The Illegals" was wildly popular with the voters in '24 as well. They did very little (or again, possibly nothing at all) to help with affordability for their poorest voters especially, or any of their voters in general.
The other was the Iran War making everything more expensive as well. Some people would have been mad at Trump for breaking his promise about "no new wars" if he'd picked a fight with, say, Tajikistan or Azerbaijan, but it wouldn't have been *as* big a deal to most people because it wouldn't have closed the Hormuz Strait. But it was Iran, and they did, and people felt it. And not just in the obvious way, when they hit the gas pump, but in all the ways that high fuel prices translate down the ladder for the shipping prices of goods, the increased price of goods due to the increased price of shipping their raw materials and manufacturing them, and so forth. High fuel prices affect people personally, and also the price of anything that moves by truck, train, plane, or ship, or is *made* with things that move by truck, train, plane, or ship.
I know you already know this. But if Vance had *denied* that it was the Iran War, he'd have come across as fundamentally unserious. The GOP *might* have survived one of those factors. It stood zero chance of surviving both.
> For that reason, I think Rubio has the best chance at being the nominee.
My top two picks here are Rubio and DeSantis. It says a *lot* about DeSantis' skills as a leader and administrator that in a Midterm season that saw a vicious Bluenami that wiped out *Texas* government at the state level, Florida stayed red. But DeSantis might also not desire to stick his dick into the meat grinder of 2028. It sort of depends on just *how* badly the Democrats cock things up in the next two years, and just *how* hard they double back down on the Woke BS.
> How the economy is performing two years from now is also important. As is who ends up losing the “Whose Crazier War,” the Democrats or Trump.
Those seem likely to be very, very critical factors.
FWIW, Ossoff is *also* Jewish. I just had a conversation with Gemini about him, and he doesn't offer much to appeal to me other than an opposition to members of Congress trading on the stock market, and opposition to ALPRs. And, somewhat betraying my hardcore libertarian free-market bona-fides, opposition to large corporations buying vast swathes of single family homes.
But he's a hardcore anti-gunner, so that's a hard no for me.
As for who actually *wins*... *throws hands up* I have no fuckin' clue. All I know is that chances are good the rest of us lose.