By the time you read this, the mid-term elections will be a week in the past. Time to move on!
Yes, I know you’re disappointed. Try running my fantasy football team. Stupid bunch of @#?!&. Sorry, I’m a little frustrated. Let’s try to take our minds off of our political concerns by focusing on 2028.
Yes, it’s way too early for that. It’s also still politics, so it’s not really taking our minds off of it, but it’s that or my @#?!& fantasy football team, so we’re doing politics.
Let’s make it fun and throw out some predictions. We’ll start with the easy stuff first.
Impeachment
Yep, Trump will be impeached. Probably Hegseth and some others too. Hearings, hearings, hearings. Look on the bright side, though, if they’re holding hearings, they’ll have less time to work on stupid bills. Which brings us to...
Stupid Bills
The Democrats will try to pass something stupid. Options include:
A wealth tax
Student loan “relief”
Packing the Court
Killing the filibuster
They will fail. But why will they fail?
Well, California, one of the few states you’d think would have no problem passing a wealth tax, just failed to implement one - Proposition 40 just failed by a margin of 56% to 44%. What’s more, voters also passed Proposition 42, which amends the state constitution to permanently block the implementation of Proposition 40 (the billionaire wealth tax) and bars the state from enacting future taxes on financial assets or personal property.
If California can’t pass a wealth tax, what are the chances one would pass at the federal level where not even every Democrat is a left-wing loon?
Here are a couple of important questions:
Will the “sane” Democrats realize that they don’t need the DSA members to pass laws?
How “crazy” is the average progressive politician?
Here is a breakdown of Congress post-midterms:
I’m going to waffle a bit on the filibuster. It doesn’t require a law, so it all comes down to how short-sighted the Dems are.
Here’s another reason I’m confident nothing crazy will pass...
The Presidential Veto
The U.S. Constitution requires a two-thirds vote in both chambers to override a presidential veto. The Democrats don’t have it.
How much political capital are “normal” Democrats willing to expend on laws that will ultimately be vetoed? I don’t know about you, but if I were a moderate Democrat, I wouldn’t want my name attached to a wealth tax.
What about the other side of the aisle?
Executive Orders
And by “the aisle,” I mean Trump. The Congressional Republicans are lamer than the lame-duck President, so if said lame-duck wants to accomplish anything, he’ll be using executive orders.
Expect a lot of these. All-time record levels of them. Three cheers for democracy! Sigh.
2028
Ok, enough of the short-term stuff; let’s get to what really matters: who will be America’s next “Great Leader”?
Predicting who the nominee will be is harder than you might imagine. Here is a list of people who were front-runners for their party’s nomination 18-24 months before the presidential election but who failed to get the nomination.
It is possible, though, as this list shows:
This is my way of saying, “I’m going to take a guess.”
Let’s start with the Republicans.
Normally, the sitting VP would have an advantage. I’m not writing him off, but if the nominee were picked today, I think he’d lose because he’s too close to Trump. The fact that he’s blaming the Iran War, Trump’s baby, for the midterm losses may be an indication that he realizes this. The problem with distancing himself from Trump is what happens if Trump garners praise for (somehow) thwarting the Democrats for the next two years?
For that reason, I think Rubio has the best chance at being the nominee. He’s doing a lot of jobs for the administration. Secretary of State and National Security Advisor (very Kissingeresque). He was also Acting Archivist of the United States and Acting USAID Administrator. He’s done all this while being almost invisible. That gives him a unique advantage. He can argue that he’s experienced and competent while appearing both close to and far from Trump. He can then wait to see which way the wind blows before deciding which is more advantageous.
And the Dems?
I think it will be Hillary Clinton. Kidding. I hope. I’m sure she’d love to run again, but she’s probably smart enough to know she wouldn’t win.
Harris, on the other hand... Why should being a terrible presidential candidate stop you from being a two-time terrible presidential candidate?
Gavin Newsom (California Trudeau)? I don’t know. Yeah, he’d win California, but which Dem wouldn’t?
AOC? Too dumb... and that voice. Ugh!
Shapiro? Too Jewish - for the Dems, at least. Yes, they have an antisemitism problem.
Polymarket has Jon Ossoff leading. Before last week, I don’t think I’d ever heard of him.
Let’s call everyone else, including people we’ve never considered, “the pack.” My bet is it’s someone from the pack. Sure, that sounds like a dodge, but it makes my next question even harder...
Who will be America’s Next President?
I capitalized “America’s Next President” because I think Trump will turn the next election into a game show. You know he wants to.
The last time a candidate of the same party won the White House immediately after that party’s president served two full terms was George H.W. Bush in 1988 (succeeding Ronald Reagan). Normally this would put the Republican candidate at a disadvantage, but Trump didn’t serve two consecutive terms, so that might matter.
How the economy is performing two years from now is also important. As is who ends up losing the “Whose Crazier War,” the Democrats or Trump.
You’re right, I’m stalling. Gun to my head?
America is a 50/50 nation, and I don’t see that changing anytime soon. I think we’re in for years, perhaps decades, of one-term presidents, so my pick is:
President “The Pack” (D).
So, there you have it. Pin these to your fridge and get the stars and glitter ready because if I get 8 or more right, that’s honor roll level predicting.
And if I get it all wrong? Well, you get what you pay for (hint, hint).
About the Author
Phil is a freelance writer, Canadian Navy veteran, and classical liberal. He has lived and worked in both Canada and the United States and currently resides in Vancouver, British Columbia, where he writes on politics, individual rights, free speech, and whatever else catches his fancy.
📰 Hoist the Black Flag — politics, history, and free speech
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You had me at Rubio and all his hats. 😉
Well said.