On September 19th Azerbaijan launched a large-scale military attack on Artsakh or, as the Soviets called it, Nagorno-Karabakh. At least 200 people died, including women and children, and 400 were wounded. Baku claims until today that this was an anti-terrorist operation, at least when giving statements to the international community, necessary to rid the enclave of so-called armed separatists. Over 105,000 of the indigenous Armenians from Artsakh have now fled to Armenia. Ilham Aliyev, Azerbaijan’s president, finally achieved his goal; the ethnic cleansing of almost the entire region has come to fruition. Having said that, Baku still denies that an ethnic cleansing happened, according to
The war in Ukraine predictably escalated this long term conflict. Azerbaijan took advantage of Russia's distraction with the war to assume that it will not take interest in the conflict as it did before. Russia's poor performance in Ukraine showed Azerbaijan that Russia would not be able to enforce any treaties in the area. Finally, by blatantly violating his own denials that he would use force in Ukraine, Putin is emboldening other former Soviet republics to resort to violence in settling territorial disputes.
The war in Ukraine predictably escalated this long term conflict. Azerbaijan took advantage of Russia's distraction with the war to assume that it will not take interest in the conflict as it did before. Russia's poor performance in Ukraine showed Azerbaijan that Russia would not be able to enforce any treaties in the area. Finally, by blatantly violating his own denials that he would use force in Ukraine, Putin is emboldening other former Soviet republics to resort to violence in settling territorial disputes.