Ukraine's NATO Membership: Inevitable or False Promise?
With recent statements by NATO, fears of a regional conflict becoming a world war reignite.
On February 25, during the second anniversary of the Russian Invasion of Ukraine, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg declared during a press conference that “Ukraine will join NATO, it is not a question of if, but of when." This sentiment was echoed by other NATO officials, who have also stated that Ukraine's membership in the alliance is a matter of when not if.
This development has caused many to wonder just what would happen if Ukraine, a nation that is currently engaged in a war with Russia, joined an alliance that was established to defend against Russian aggression. Would Article Five, which compels all member nations to declare war against any nation that attacks any NATO member, be invoked, starting a global conflict?
While such statements like these have been made in the past, NATO members reinforcing their stances show a willingness from the West to continue its support in the ongoing war. A war that has claimed the lives of thousands and has become a war of attrition. However, some still believe that Ukraine's membership in NATO is not a foregone conclusion. Some experts believe that Ukraine's membership in the alliance could be delayed as the war continues.
How to Join NATO
Joining NATO involves a multi-step process governed by Article 10 of the North Atlantic Treaty. A country must first express interest in joining and meet specific requirements, including having a functioning democratic political system, fair treatment of minority populations, and the ability to contribute to NATO's military operations. The North Atlantic Council oversees the process, and all existing members must unanimously agree to invite the new member. Once invited, the country must complete a series of political and military integration steps before becoming a full member. The process can take time, as seen with recent additions like Finland and Sweden, which joined in 2023.
Will Ukraine Join NATO? Is It Worth It?
There is a great deal of debate among experts about whether Ukraine will join NATO. Some believe that Ukraine's membership in the alliance would deter Russia from further aggression, while others think it would only escalate the conflict. U.S. President Biden has echoed calls for NATO membership. However, some experts suggest that these claims by the president and other NATO leaders are not sincere as no timeline is ever mentioned when discussing Ukraine joining NATO.
President Zelenskyy has also expressed frustration over no specific details about Ukraine being admitted in 2023 in the following 𝕏 post: “It's unprecedented and absurd when a timeframe is not set, neither for the invitation nor for Ukraine’s membership.” While Ukraine has sent multiple requests for a Membership Action Plan, NATO has not extended any invitation or sought to force a vote on Ukrainian membership.

Member nations may have concerns over emitting Ukraine as such an action would lead to a world war on their borders. The U.S. may want to avoid a full-scale war with Russia as China remains on the horizon as a significant strategic threat to the U.S. Another reason to keep Ukraine from joining NATO is what the U.S. gets from a war of attrition in Ukraine; the current war has shown little sign of slowing down, and even in the event of a Russian victory, the cost of the war could render the Russian army vulnerable and weak.
This would be achieved without any NATO troops being used in a major war. There is also a concern that Ukraine's membership in NATO could lead to a broader war between Russia and the West. This is a risk that NATO officials are aware of, which may be why some member states respond cautiously to the question of NATO membership. Russia has vehemently opposed Ukraine's membership in NATO and has threatened to take "military-technical" measures if Ukraine were to join the alliance. Russian President Vladimir Putin has also warned that Ukraine's membership in NATO would lead to "prolonged and serious consequences."
Rising Tensions
Tensions between Russia and the West have increased, on February 26, French President Emmanuel Macron stated that sending Western troops on the ground in Ukraine is not “ruled out” during a conference with European leaders in Paris. President Macron said, "We will do everything needed so Russia cannot win the war.”
On March 1st, communications between German officials surfaced; in this audio, German officials can be heard discussing carrying out attacks via a missile strike on the Kerch Bridge that links Crimea to Russia. In the leaked audio, German officers can be heard discussing in detail how to destroy the bridge, and they state that “The target is not only of military-strategic importance but also political good. We can't be seen as directly involved."
The spokeswoman for the German defense ministry told AFP News that the conversation between these officers was secretly recorded and that she was “unable to say for certain” whether the voices on the leaked audio were legitimate and not altered. In response, a Russian foreign ministry spokeswoman demanded that Germany explain. Dmitry Medvedev, the deputy head of Russia’s Security Council, stated, “Look, with what thoroughness and in such detail the (Germans) discuss striking our territory with long-range missiles, choose targets to hit and discuss how to inflict the maximum harm to our motherland and our people.”
The Ongoing War
The war in Ukraine has raged for over a year now, and there is no end in sight. Ukraine’s summer offensive has stalled, giving way to a brutal winter with little to no gains on the front line. Supplies for Ukraine are dwindling; not only do they lack vehicles to replace those that are destroyed, but the Ukrainian military also lacks the ammunition. Ukrainian manpower has been severely limited, and new troops lack critical training as recruits are only trained for five weeks before being sent to the front.
Foreign support for Ukraine has also fluctuated as nations struggle to keep up with the demands of a modern war. Some countries, such as the U.S., face opposition within their government and amongst the people regarding how much support Ukraine should be given. Russian military leaders, understanding these challenges, have adopted a strategy of slow attrition, with minor offenses and reliance on indirect fire (artillery and mortars); because of this, Russia seems to have elected to wait out Ukrainian resolve as well as the willingness of the West to continue supplying and funding this war.
Ukraine's potential NATO membership remains a highly debated topic amidst the ongoing war with Russia. While NATO officials have expressed their support for Ukraine's eventual inclusion, the process is not without risks and complexities. Concerns about escalating the conflict and the potential for a broader war between Russia and the West are valid and must be carefully considered. As Ukraine continues to face challenges on multiple fronts, it remains to be seen whether the country will ultimately join NATO and the implications of such a move. The situation is highly fluid, and the outcome will depend on the complex interplay of political, military, and diplomatic factors.

I'll take option B, false promise. As has been made clear by pretty much every NATO country now they look like needing our boys to actually fight and die for them. But it was a lie they were cynically and deliberately sold in order to deceive them into bleeding the Russians. We have behaved despicably towards the Ukrainians, and I expect they will hate us forever for it. With good cause.