The title of a recent Wall Street Journal article was, The World’s Most Surprising Economic Success Story Is…North Korea.
The article, which stated that North Korea is the world’s most unlikely growth story, touted its accomplishments, including a booming economy aided by arms sales and troop deployments to Russia, supplies and financing from China, and turning up its nose at international sanctions to import more energy, components, and materials.
Kim closed its borders during the COVID-19 pandemic, and they have remained largely closed since then. Since then, he has initiated a nationwide construction initiative. Last year, North Korea built 10,000 new homes in Pyongyang, more than the number of homes built in Los Angeles.
Outside the capital city, North Korea remains poor, with nearly half of its 26 million residents malnourished, according to a U.N. report. The country is one of the world’s worst violators of human rights, where distributing South Korean content can be punishable by death.
North Korea didn’t turn around its economy on its own. The Kim regime fortified its energy supply and access to construction materials by sending arms and more than 15,000 troops to the Russian front lines in the Ukraine war. One-third of those soldiers were killed or injured. The arms sales have returned billions.
Monthly trade with China just hit an eight-year high, with a variety of Chinese consumer brands touting business in North Korea despite such sales violating sanctions. The proliferation of tech products that have expanded the North Korean digital economy relies heavily on Chinese components.
Both Beijing and Moscow, which have veto power at the U.N., have reiterated their calls to ease sanctions on Pyongyang. Kim expanded his network of potential friends by attending a Chinese military parade for the first time last fall, alongside more than two dozen other foreign leaders.
North Korea’s economy expanded 3.7% in 2024, its fastest rate in eight years, according to the most recent figures from South Korea’s central bank, which uses spy-agency data to produce its estimate. South Korean think tanks estimate the growth has continued.
Five years ago, North Korea appeared to be on the ropes. Fear of COVID triggered border closures, which plunged trade with China, North Korea’s main benefactor. Energy shortages forced coal mines to halt production. Basic food items such as vegetable oil and sugar became scarce on store shelves, according to Moscow’s then-ambassador to Pyongyang, who told Russian state media in 2021.
The economic downturn started to recover following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, an action North Korea publicly supported.
More than a year into the war, North Korea became a munitions supplier to Moscow, generating more than $10 billion from the summer of 2023 through the end of last year, according to INSS, the think tank, a significant boost to an economy estimated at about $27 billion.
Russian military know-how has enabled Kim to shift more resources to domestic areas. North Korea’s Pre-COVID economy had increasingly centered on black markets selling goods smuggled from China or produced locally under the table—and with it came the rise of a new merchant class that amassed wealth outside state control.
What are we to make of this article? What is its purpose? Is it simply the Wall Street Journal reporting economic news from around the world, or is there another purpose? Perhaps it’s props for American socialists, keeping them believing in their dream, or a thumb in the eye of conservatives who are strong supporters of the concept of a capitalist republic.
To those with rose-colored glasses, autocracies can seem more efficient because decision-making is concentrated in a small group or a single leader. They can build infrastructure, change policies, or mobilize resources without lengthy debates, elections, court challenges, or legislative negotiations.
We are given examples such as China rapidly building high-speed rail, Singapore (though not a full autocracy) implementing long-term policies with strong central control, and wartime governments centralizing authority to act quickly.
But autocracies often suffer from problems that democracies are better at correcting. Bad decisions can be implemented just as efficiently as good ones.
If a leader makes a mistake, there may be few checks to prevent it. The same centralized power that enables speed can magnify errors. Information can be distorted, leading to inefficiency. Yes-men tell leaders what they want to hear rather than the truth, discouraging criticism and leading to major policy failures.
Democracies have regular, predictable transfers of power. Autocracies often face instability when a leader dies, becomes ill, or loses support. Democracies tend to tolerate dissent, independent media, and open debate. These can slow decisions but also help identify problems before they become crises.
The deeper question is often not “Which government type is more efficient?” but “Efficient at what?” Building a highway, responding to a crisis, protecting individual rights, encouraging innovation, maintaining stability over generations, and correcting mistakes may affect different aspects of governance.
Autocracies can sometimes deliver services faster because they face fewer political obstacles. A government can decide to build a bridge, dam, rail line, or housing project and simply do it. Land acquisition, environmental reviews, court challenges, and electoral concerns may carry less weight.
Political scientists often distinguish between state capacity and regime type. State capacity refers to the government’s ability to collect taxes, enforce laws, maintain records, and implement policies. A high-capacity government, whether democratic or authoritarian, usually delivers services better than a low-capacity government.
Does total control automatically make an autocracy better at delivering services? The answer is generally no. Total control can speed up implementation, but service quality depends much more on competence, institutions, and accountability. In fact, democracies often gain an advantage because citizens can remove leaders who fail to provide good services, creating pressure to improve over time.
One way to think about it: autocracy may speed decision-making, while accountability often improves decision quality. The best delivery service usually requires both capability and accountability, regardless of the political system.
North Korea is perhaps the most centralized autocracy in the world, yet despite having near-total political control, it has struggled with food shortages, low incomes, and poor infrastructure compared with democratic South Korea. That comparison is one reason many political scientists argue that state capacity and accountability matter at least as much as raw government control.
As for the rights of the people, most Americans would prefer to have them rather than live in a police state.
Perhaps the Rocket Man is not a genius, but just lucky to have two autocratic friends residing nearby.
Wrong Speak is a free-expression platform that allows varying viewpoints. All views expressed in this article are the author’s own.
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