The French Game Of Thrones
On Sunday, June 9th, in France, the nationalist and right-wing party Le Rassemblement National emerged as the big winner of the European elections with nearly 32% of the vote. The centrist coalition run by the presidential party Renaissance grabbed just under 15% of the vote.
Following the humiliation received by his movement and about an hour after the first results, President Macron took the floor for a solemn address to the French people.
He announced the dissolution of the National Assembly and new legislative elections on June 30 and July 7, 2024, a decision that could propel Jordan Bardella, the leader of Le Rassemblement National to the position of Prime Minister.
It ensued in the French political landscape several simultaneous plot lines, a war of succession among competing claimants for control of the executive throne, standing at the head of the Council of Ministers.
The left parties, fearing that Le Rassemblement National and satellite right-wing factions obtain the majority of seats in the National Assembly, formed a coalition called Le Nouveau Front Populaire ; a reference to the alliance of French left-wing movements that won the May 1936 legislative election preventing fascist-related organizations to access power. It included the Socialist Party (PS), the Green Party (Europe Ecologie-Les Verts), the French Communist Party (PCF), and the far-left party La France Insoumise.
With Le Nouveau Front Populaire, the left, therefore, plays on the Reductio ad Hitlerum Nazi card, attempting to gain voters by demonizing Le Rassemblement National.
Éric Ciotti, the leader of the conservative party Les Républicains tried to forge an alliance with Le Rassemblement National. The centrist faction of his party announced they were expelling Ciotti but he refused to step down and barricaded himself in their headquarters. He subsequently received support from the right-wing faction of his party.
A Parisian court overturned the exclusion of the French conservative leader and invalidated the move, thereupon allowing him to retain his power to make decisions on who to nominate in the upcoming snap elections.
Les Républicains are imploding, splitting between the right-leaning faction calling for an alliance with the Le Rassemblement National and the centrist faction rejecting such a deal with the nationalist party.
On the right side of Le Rassemblement National stands Reconquête the far-right political party founded by Éric Zemmour known for advocating a reduction in immigration numbers and the de-Islamization of France.
During the European election campaign, Zemmour has proven to be extremely critical of Le Rassemblement National despite affinities reproaching Jordan Bardella and its head figure, Marine Le Pen, to have compromised ideologically seeking de-demonization over political integrity.
Leading the EU election campaign for Reconquête was Marion Maréchal who happens to be Marine Le Pen’s estranged niece.
Marion fell out with her aunt when she joined Zemmour’s party in 2022.
Unlike him, during the campaign, she refused to bash Le Rassemblement National saying, “I make the difference between my opponents and my competitors”.
Marion called for Reconquête to back her aunt’s party and step down from the upcoming snap election in order to strengthen the far-right position against Le Nouveau Front Populaire, the left coalition.
She was fired by Zemmour for insubordination, asserting that she betrayed Reconquête and rejoined her family’s camp.
Reconquête is now collapsing, slashed between the pro-Zemmour and pro-Marion factions. The former dubbing Le Pen’s niece a traitor, the latter affirming that she is pragmatic wanting a win for the far-right ideas rather than a win for the party and that Zemmour let his ego get the better of his political conviction.
The left alliance Le Nouveau Front Populaire also faces internal dissension.
First, Raphaël Glucksmann, leader of the Socialist Party, claimed he obtained a very clear commitment from the coalition that the attacks of October 7 would be described as “terrorist”.
However, according to French newspapers, the agreement is on shaky ground as Glucksmann has already threatened to leave the alliance due to the far-left party La France Insoumise rhetoric that legitimizes Hamas as a resistance movement and the ambiguities of its pro-Palestinian members.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon, leader of La France Insoumise has a strong hold on the rest of the alliance, Le Nouveau Front Populaire. He has started a great purge punishing those who challenged his authority in the past preventing them from being candidates in their constituencies in the upcoming election.
Some political observers affirm that Macron's decision to dissolve the National Assembly was done in order to push parties to clarify their position and regain a majority. Others support the idea that Macron hopes for Le Rassemblement National to win the election and Jordan Bardella to take on the role of Prime Minister.
Then, until 2027 and the next presidential election, Macron would be able to show the French the incompetence of Le Rassemblement National, blaming them for all the social issues of the country and therefore paving the way for his political party to reacquire presidential power.
Who will claim control of the executive throne seated at the head of the Council of Ministers?
Answers to come June 30 and July 7.
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