Orange Man Bad. Tariff Man Good

Why Don’t We Judge The Policies Instead?

I was ready to talk about something else, honestly. Then OpenAI updated ChatGPT and my plan fell through. A story for another time. Perhaps. (Note: even AI can be wrong. Check your work!).

Now I’m faced with a deadline and short of ideas. So back to the “gift that keeps on giving” I guess. There are so many great quotations to summarize the environment we find ourselves in today that I can’t pick just one. Here are a few that summarize my concerns today, see if you can recognize the theme:

Most people would sooner die than think; in fact, they do so.
-- Bertrand Russell

People do not like to think. If one thinks, one must reach conclusions. Conclusions are not always pleasant.
-- Helen Keller

There are two different types of people in the world, those who want to know, and those who want to believe.
-- Friedrich Nietzsche

I’m disappointed. Oh, so disappointed. If I were a Catholic mother, or possibly a Jewish one, and you were my child, this statement and a sad shake of my head might be enough to make you change your ways. But I’m not, so I’m going to have to use a much less effective method than guilt, logic.

Before I start, though, if you are in the habit of looking at policies and judging them on their merits, you’re free to go. Just leave an apple on my desk and go out and play. Yes, get off social media for a while and touch some grass. The rest of you though…

Did you learn nothing from the “Orange Man Bad” people? Trump Derangement Syndrome, the irrational disregard of policies because they came from Trump is a real thing. It’s idiotic and the election of Trump in 2024 was, in some ways, a victory over it. Don’t get me wrong, TDS still exists but it’s been overtaken by something equally bad, we’ll call it “Tariff Man good” syndrome - TMG, “All Rights Reserved” – in which nothing Trump does is bad or should even be questioned.

Why is it a problem?
Congratulations, your guy got elected. Did you think your job was over? Did you think “here’s a guy who never lies or makes a mistake. It’s safe to go about our lives and just let him do whatever he wants?” Wrong. Your job is just beginning. Or to be more precise, your job never ends.

Eternal vigilance is the price of liberty
-- Wendell Phillips

He’s better than Harris
Sure, he is. Or at least that’s what I thought headed into the 2024 election. I’m still hoping he’ll be a good president, but that doesn’t mean he can’t be wrong. I like the goal of DOGE, and I like his desire to end the war in Ukraine. Though I’m less enthusiastic about his methods, I like his dismantling of DEI, but I don’t like everything. I’m not going to make the mistake of saying I understand his intentions. I don’t. Nobody does – sometimes I’m not even sure he does. I will, however, question some of his statements. Here are a few that don’t add up:

• “Canada has been ripping us off for years on tariffs.” The current trade agreement, the USMCA, was negotiated by Trump during his last presidency. Trump called it “the greatest trade deal in the history of our country.” So, did he negotiate a terrible deal or is he being less than transparent about his goals?

Tariffs are complicated and the exact impact they’ll have on imports is difficult to predict, but we can make a few (wrong) assumptions to simplify things:

• Import volumes will not fall (they will)

• Other countries won’t retaliate (they will)

• New tariffs won’t replace existing ones (they will)

Trump has proposed the following tariffs:

• 20% universal tariff on all imports

• 60% tariff on imports from China

• 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico

Given our (wrong) assumptions, Trump's proposed tariffs would raise $860.2 billion annually. He has proposed using this money to:

• Eliminate the national debt:

  • The national debt currently stands at $36.56 trillion and the interest payments on it are approximately $952 billion. Short story, Trump's tariffs won’t even cover the interest payments.

  • What if he raises the tariffs? Great question! Here’s what different tariff rates would accomplish (if Congress didn’t increase spending – ya, that makes me laugh too):

    • A 29.33% on all goods entering the US would cover the debt payments allowing the debt to remain $36.56 trillion.

    • A 56.3% tariff would eliminate the national debt in 20 years

    • A 112.6% tariff would eliminate the national debt in 10 years

    • A 225.3% tariff rate would eliminate the national debt in 5 years

    • 1,126% tariff (over 11 times the value of imports) would eliminate the national debt in one year.

• Tariffs will replace income tax - This is actually more realistic than eliminating the national debt. The US is projected to collect $2.6 trillion in income tax in 2025. An 80.1% tariff would theoretically generate $2.6 trillion if import volumes remained unchanged.

  • Buzz kill time: Economists (e.g., Tax Foundation, October 2024) still don’t buy it, estimating max tariff revenue at $500 billion–$1 trillion annually, far below the necessary $2.6 trillion.

All in all, his claims are…questionable. That’s not surprising given he’s also prone to exaggeration. Some examples:

• End the Ukraine-Russia War in 24 Hours

• Launch the Largest Deportation Operation in History on Day 1

• Release Epstein Files

There’s no law against exaggeration, but it does mean we need to be careful about what we believe.

I began with some quotes on thinking, let me end with two about citizenship and responsibility:

“Liberty cannot be preserved without a general knowledge among the people, who have a right … and a desire to know.”
-- John Adams

“There is one safeguard known generally to the wise, which is an advantage and security to all, but especially to democracies as against despots. What is it? Distrust.”
-- Demosthenes

I’ll repeat what I said earlier, your job isn’t over. Your guy won! Congratulations! You know he’s a politician, right? I’d advise you to remember that old quip "How do you know a politician is lying? His lips are moving.” He promised to do good by you and he should be given a chance, but remember what that other great Republican president said:

Trust but verify
-- Ronald Reagan

Your job as a citizen is to keep an eye on politicians. That means having a healthy distrust of everything they say and every policy they propose. TDS is a bad approach as it dismisses everything that comes from Trump. Citizens think. People with TDS do not.

Unfortunately, there appear to be just as many on the right who suffer from TMG. “Trump said it and that’s good enough for me” is not the statement of an engaged and thinking citizen. It’s the philosophy of someone who wants to be free of the need to think. If this is your philosophy, then you’re not really a citizen, you’re a subject in need of a king.

Wrong Speak is a free-expression platform that allows varying viewpoints. All views expressed in this article are the author's own.