Oh Hell No, Canada

I know there’s a lot going on in the US now. We’re what, 17 years into Trump’s second term now? Or does it just feel that way? Regardless, you have a lot going on down there with “Signalgate,” the everchanging tariff situation, and plans to conquer Greenland taking up the headlines you may have missed that we’re headed for an election up here in Canada. Who cares, right? It’ll be over 27 days after this is published. It is hardly worth paying attention to. Especially since that conservative guy is way out in the lead. Isn’t he?

Weeeell…maybe a quick look wouldn’t hurt. Give me a few minutes to update you on the election. You might be surprised how familiar the story feels.

During the height of the 2024 Presidential election, I added a section to my Weekly News Roundup covering the “imminent” Canadian election. I discontinued the series shortly before the US election as very little was changing in the Canadian polls and “imminent” at the time looked like it would be October 2025. How things have changed!

If you’re an American, or just followed the US election closely last year see how much of this feels familiar:

• Justin Trudeau, a very unpopular leader, steps down.

• Mark Carney, is elected as Liberal Party leader in a contest that saw two candidates disqualified and accusations that the race was “fixed” to ensure Carney won.

• Mainstream media takes sides. Per Grok, “Carney gets a polished, hopeful spin; Pierre Poilievre’s coverage is sharper, often wary or critical in mainstream sources. Carney’s economic expertise and policy shifts dominate; Poilievre’s rhetoric and lack of specifics draw scrutiny.”

Does it feel like a rehash of the Kamala Harris campaign?

How it started vs How it’s going
The last time I wrote an article commenting on the Canadian polls was January 7^th and they looked like this:

Trudeau and the Liberals were headed for an electoral decimation and possibly the end of the party’s official status.

This is today:

“WTF” indeed!

What happened?

Well, it’s not unlike what happened in the US when Harris replaced Biden only supercharged. Here is a look at the US Presidential polls shortly after Biden decided not to seek reelection:

Trump’s red line is sailing along nicely, while Biden’s dark blue one is plummeting. Then…Harris to the rescue!

Of course, there’s more to the Liberals’ change of fortune than a new leader and favorable press coverage. The Liberals are also taking another page out of the Harris campaign strategy by adopting their opponent's more popular platform proposals including:

• Scrapping the Consumer Carbon Tax

  • Poilievre has long campaigned to "axe the tax," framing the carbon levy as a burden on Canadians amid rising living costs. Carney, once a carbon pricing advocate, is now promising to eliminate the consumer carbon tax.

• Proposing Middle-Class Tax Cuts

  • Poilievre has pushed for tax relief, including cutting GST on new homes and reducing income taxes to ease financial pressures. Carney launched his 2025 campaign with a middle-class tax cut, reducing the lowest tax bracket’s marginal rate by 1%.

• Eliminating Capital Gains Tax Increases

  • Poilievre opposed Trudeau’s capital gains tax hikes. Carney has promised to eliminate planned increases in the capital gains tax.

• Breaking Down Interprovincial Trade Barriers

  • Poilievre has advocated for internal free trade to enhance economic efficiency, a long-standing Conservative goal. Carney pledged to achieve internal free trade by Canada Day 2025.

• Increasing their Support for Oil and Gas (Tempered)

  • Poilievre has strongly supported oil and gas development, criticizing Liberal policies like the emissions cap as anti-industry. While not fully embracing unfettered development, Carney has softened the Liberal stance.

Wait! Wasn’t there something else? Oh ya…

Trump. Isn’t it always about Trump? Would he have it any other way?

It’s not entirely his fault as we’ve seen, but his constant “51^st state” rhetoric and tariff threats have provided our new PM, yes, Carney is PM despite not having been elected (don’t ask) with the opportunity to play the tough guy and unite Canadians behind a “foreign enemy” thus distracting them from the internal one (i.e. his Liberal Party).

Trump has done such an excellent job alienating Canadians that recent polls show “Dealing with Donald Trump” as the second most important issue to Canadians behind the cost of living (given the tariff threats one could make the argument that Trump plays a big role in the top concern as well).

The vast majority of people who see Trump as the top issue plan to vote for the Liberals.

As things stand, the more Carney can make the election about Trump the better his chances of winning. Trump is doing his best, intentionally or not, to make it all about him and Carney is receiving help from an unlikely ally, former NDP leader Tom Mulcair who recently told Canadians “If you can’t seriously say you’re going to form a government that can take on Trump, then get out of the way.” Or to put it another way, “Don’t vote for the NDP!”

Whether voters are listening to him or deciding on their own we can see half of the people who voted for the NDP in 2021 are now planning on voting for the Liberals.

The last time a Canadian political party won four federal elections in a row was over a century ago, during the tenure of Sir Wilfrid Laurier and the Liberal Party. Laurier led the Liberals to victory in the elections of 1896, 1900, 1904, and 1908. This streak began with the 9th Canadian general election on June 23, 1896, and ended with the 12th general election on October 26, 1908.

Since then, no Canadian political party has achieved four consecutive federal election victories. Will that change on April 28^th? I sincerely hope not. A lot can change in 4 weeks but at the moment despite a decade of failed policies and a list of corruption scandals as long as my arm, Mark Carney’s Liberal party is ahead in most polls. If he wins, credit should go, in equal parts, to Trump for making it all about him and to my fellow Canadians for allowing the Liberal Party to slap a fresh coat of paint on a lemon and call it a Lamborghini.

Wrong Speak is a free-expression platform that allows varying viewpoints. All views expressed in this article are the author's own.