Former President Donald Trump Has Been Found Guilty Of 34 Felonies, What Now?
Many are considering how Trump’s conviction will impact him in the upcoming November election.
In what some high-profile individuals are calling an unprecedented attack on our democracy, last Thursday a jury of 12 New Yorkers found President Donald J. Trump guilty of 34 felonies having to do with falsifying business records. Judge Juan Merchan, who has been presiding over the trial, has set the sentencing hearing for July 11th.
It’s still unknown what sentence will ultimately be handed down. The range of potential sentences ranges from literally nothing to four years per felony. His fate remains uncertain, but that hasn’t deterred pundits and analysts from both sides of the aisle from speculating.
Though the consensus appears that incarceration is unlikely, the fact that it is even on the table in the first place for a former and current presidential candidate means that some serious questions are yet to be answered. The most pertinent of these, as far as the upcoming 2024 presidential election is concerned is whether or not this recent verdict hurts or helps former President Donald J. Trump.
How White Voters Feel
Regarding white voters, as of April 2024, the Republican party roughly holds a 15-point advantage over the Democrats, and since Donald Trump is the presumptive Republican candidate at this point, it stands to reason that this 15-point lead applies to him as well. However, a lot has happened in the two months since that data was gathered.
In the aftermath of the New York jury’s history-making verdict, major news outlets have been all too happy to report that Trump’s polling numbers are taking a significant hit. One of the more notable of these is Newsweek which recently came out with an article titled, “Donald Trump Suffers Triple Polling Blow In 48 Hours After Guilty Verdict,” which explains what voters are saying post-conviction. Are pieces such as this correct though?
A significant portion of the right-wing base, approximately 15% according to the aforementioned article, believes Trump was guilty and that the verdict was correct. This is, however, less impactful than we’ve been led to believe.
In many polls that ask voters directly about their voting intentions- a much more significant measure than their general opinions of the individual candidates- the results are mixed. Some polls indicate a slight decline in support for Trump, while others show a small increase.
![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0e425e14-1602-4414-80ef-a220bbfc6dc0_1456x1048.png)
This means that the guilty verdict, has, so far, had no impact on the electorate. Until further polling data comes out, we must assume that things among that electorate are similar to what they were before the jury’s decision. With white voters as a majority of the voting base in this country, and subsequently the majority of that electorate, one can also reasonably assume that Donald Trump still maintains that 15-point lead.
When it comes to white voters, presently it does not appear that Trump being a convicted felon will have any significance. Given the record-breaking 53 million he has raised in the days following his conviction, it might prove to be an advantage. But what about non-white voters?
The statistical reality is that there is only one group whom the Democrats cannot afford to lose. This is not the Hispanic vote, which they hold a slight lead in, or the Asian vote, which is comparable to the Hispanic split (roughly even between Republicans and Democrats). The demographic that Democrats cannot afford to lose is black Americans, who have been an overwhelmingly reliable voting block for them since the civil rights movement.
So, how do black Americans feel about Trump’s recent conviction?
How Black Voters Feel
Whether or not they care to admit it, the DNC has been consistently hemorrhaging black votes since the 2016 election. In 2012 Mitt Romney only received 6% of the black vote. However, in 2016 Trump added 33% to that and captured 8% of the that same bloc’s vote. Then, in 2020, he increased that number to 12%.
In the four years since that 2020 election, Trump has continued to poll well with black Americans and currently sits at, depending on the poll, 12-15%. Historically, Trump has outperformed his pre-election polling numbers. Currently, these polls are influenced by pollsters considering former Democrat RFK Jr. as an equal threat to Biden and Trump. However, RFK Jr. is not particularly popular among right-wing voters, largely because of his stance on abortion. Given this context, it seems reasonable to expect that in 2024, Trump might once again increase his appeal among black voters. But the question remains: has the recent verdict changed this potential outcome?
One can gain a lot of insight into the demographics they want to research by looking at the thought leaders of those groups. This is called qualitative research and it involves prioritizing the use of academic observations over numerical data, thus making it quite valuable when the level of polling data we need to make an accurate assessment is yet to exist.
The Breakfast Club is regarded by most people in media and broadcasting as the most popular “black” show on the air. Because of this, many view it as an excellent place to read the pulse of the black voter demographic and see their stance on certain issues.
In one of their recent post-verdict episodes four out of four callers asked to discuss how they felt about the Trump verdict stated that they were now pro-Trump and that they “sympathized” with his conviction. Furthermore, one of the callers, a man from Pennsylvania, said that “Trump got done dirty” and he feels “[Trump] is way better than Biden.” He also went on to call Biden “the devil” and listed off some of the current president’s most shameful policies including the 1986 mandatory minimum sentence bill, the 1988 crack bill, and the 1994 crime bill. This call drew shared condemnation from the hosts, all of which have previously said that these bills disproportionately affected black people.
While this is not clear-cut statistical proof that Trump's conviction boosts his favorability among black voters, this unexpected occurrence does reinforce the idea that many black people, who as a demographic also feel they live in an unjust and biased system, will be able to find common ground with the former president come election day just like the recent callers on The Breakfast Club did. This could spell big trouble for his opposition, Joe Biden, who four years ago went on The Breakfast Club and told that same audience, “If you got a problem figuring out whether you’re for me or Trump, then you ain’t black,” something that was not received kindly by black Americans.
What All Of This Means
In his response to the guilty verdict, Donald Trump said “The real verdict is going to be November 5th, and he’s not wrong. We could analyze the implications of this recent verdict for hours, but ultimately its significance will only be determined when the American people reach their own conclusions.
Will they decide that this case, just like all of Trump's other cases, is politically motivated, or will they determine that this is the straw that breaks the camel’s back and that they have had enough of the “weaponization of the Justice Department”?
Time will reveal the full impact, but as of now, Judge Merchan’s decision appears far from the decisive blow the DNC had anticipated.
![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F027d75a1-032f-414f-a71e-a3de541898ee_1920x1080.png)
These indictments of Donald Trump are more of an indictment of the Democratic Party and their political shenanigans. Whether you like Donald Trump, or not, Biden is much less likable. Yes, Trump is brash, outspoken. Boisterous and now, if you listen to the left, a convicted felon. That being said, the choice and the presidential election will be clear. Do we vote for Trump who brought this nation to a place of strength, security and prosperity? What do we choose to backslide and vote for a president who has gamed the system with his family corruption, his insults to black America, his destruction of our border security, his runaway spending – the list goes on, and everyone of them is destructive to our union as a country.
It is high time for America to wake up to what is going on. We have a President who, for all intents and purposes, is non compos mentos. He has openly invited millions of illegals to infiltrate our country at the southern border, given them financial support using our money, and set the stage for something even worse than 9/11. He plays directly into the hands of the lights of George Soros and continues to destroy our economy and the value of our dollar. He has appointed cronies to head our DOJ and the office of Attorney General. He has weaponized the IRS against any who might speak against him. I will not bore you with any more of this significant list of failures.
The time has come for all patriotic Americans to show up at the ballot box, in person, and vote for American values. Biden is the despotic and dictatorial. we need a proven leader who will reverse the policies of Joe Biden, and his handlers. Much of the damage will take years to undo, but it appears that Donald J Trump will be the best to lead that task. He still intends to drain the swamp. He didn’t understand how deep that swamp was in 2016. Now that he fully understands the problem, we need to get him back and support him in his efforts. And make no mistake, we need to secure the House again take back the Senate, and turn some of our blue states red. That’s the only way this works if we are to survive and thrive.