Biden’s Plan To Forgive Student Debt Hits Another Roadblock
A Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals just blocked Biden’s efforts to forgive student loans, but will this help or hurt him in the long run?
Last month President Biden faced yet another legal roadblock in his fight to forgive student debt. The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit, which is based in New Orleans, overturned a judge’s preexisting decision that said students who were “misled” by universities could seek loan forgiveness. This means that, as of now, an injunction blocking this route to debt forgiveness nationwide has been implemented.
The Biden administration is no stranger to these legal challenges. Nearly a year ago, the Supreme Court itself ruled on Biden’s aggressive plan to forgive over 400 billion in student debt, deciding that the administration simply didn’t have the authority to do so. Of course, this was seemingly taken as a suggestion by Biden and his cabinet, because despite this Supreme Court decision, Biden has since canceled over 153 billion in outstanding student debt, with another 7.4 billion on track to be forgiven even after the recent Fifth Circuit decision.
With this in mind, this new ruling may not be the Republican victory some think it is. Well, not in terms of blocking student debt forgiveness that is. But then again, there is another aspect to this that one must consider: This is an election year and that means that the U.S. population is, at least for the next six months, paying very close attention to how their leaders choose to spend their tax money. If Biden handles that pressure poorly, it may just increase his opponents’ chances of electoral victory.
Double Or Nothing
Historically, the economy, inflation, and all other manner of things that impact the electorates’ wallets are at the top of the proverbial totem pole when it comes to what the American voter cares about. When the economic conditions are good, the incumbent is likely to win. When they are not, the opposite is true. When it comes to what this has to do with student debt forgiveness, put plainly, the Biden administration’s performance on the economy has been, according to recent polling, lackluster; especially when contrasted with the not-too-distant Trump era that saw record-setting not-too-distant achievements in multiple economic categories. These include the stock market, unemployment numbers, and median wages earned. Furthermore, the Biden administration is, perhaps not responsible for, but at the very least failing to curb the record-high inflation that is wreaking absolute havoc on the nation’s pocketbooks.
Of course, even if President Biden were to halt the rising inflation that is plaguing his record, this would not necessarily reverse the damage that has already been done. Nor would it change the fact that as this inflation is occurring, our current leaders, backed by Biden, are spending money we simply don’t have.
To elaborate, the current U.S. Debt is 34 trillion dollars and climbing. Now instead of trying to cut back on this debt, U.S. lawmakers, again, with the support of Biden, just sent another 95 billion dollars to support foreign wars in two countries, and a “potential” foreign war in a third. It is worth noting that this spending bill is just a metaphorical drop in the bucket compared to what we’ve spent on Ukraine alone over the last two years. In addition to this, the current administration is also spending hundreds of billions on environmental projects that, though potentially useful in the future, are not anywhere near replacing existing energy sources, and therefore should not, strategically speaking, be a national priority. Certainly not as much of a priority as our debt, anyway.
These facts coupled with the uncomfortable reality that homelessness is continuing to rise at unprecedented rates, something that affects all voters and is directly correlated with higher consumer prices, begs the question, Will the Biden administration start to curb spending on things like student debt forgiveness, or will they double down? As of now, the answer is the latter.
Election Juice vs Economic Squeeze
From an analytical perspective, the real question is whether the proverbial juice gained from these student loan forgiveness programs is worth the economic squeeze. Is the number of voters that President Biden will gain greater than the number he will lose? To answer this, it’s useful to look at the polling data and voter demographics from the last four years.
Historically, among white voters, who make up the majority of the electorate, those with a college education have leaned disproportionately to the left. In fact, among this demographic Democrats have a stable 13 percentage point lead. Since these voters are the primary benefactors of Biden’s student debt relief efforts, it is reasonable to presume that these aforementioned policies will only increase their support for the sitting president; or in any case, it is highly unlikely that these programs will hurt him in a presidential election.
But what about non-college-educated white voters?
According to polling conducted in 2020, Biden stopped a trend of losing these voters that the Democrat party had been dealing with for years, and this was seen by the left as a grand victory on the political battlefield. However, even though Biden did better than expected with white, non-college-educated voters, he still only received 37% of their support.
Here is where things get interesting.
According to the left themselves, if Biden had not received this 37%, and had instead received, say, 34%, “he very well might not be president right now.” The reason this 34% number is so critical is that four years later Biden is polling lower than 34% with white, non-college-educated voters (33%). Perhaps he halted the bleeding in 2020, but the flow appears to have started again in 2024 and could very likely lead to his demise in November if it isn’t stopped.
One cannot establish a direct line of causality between Biden’s student loan forgiveness and his fleeting support among white, non-college-educated voters, but it is relevant that as this demographic is being squeezed economically by funding for foreign war, funding for illegal immigrant aid programs, and funding for student debt forgiveness, they appear to be giving about as much juice as one would expect to get from an electoral baked potato.
Seeing as how receiving low turnout from this group could be detrimental to the sitting president in the upcoming November election, especially considering his recent losses in the other traditionally Democrat demographics (Black, Hispanic, etc.), taking money from the highly competitive non-college educated bloc and giving it to a group that already leans heavily Democrat may turn out to be a costly mistake. This action is presumably an attempt to bolster favor, but it carries the risk of alienating the non-college-educated bloc further.
The Future Is Now
It is no secret that actions now have consequences later. Despite this fact, the Biden administration continues to ignore court orders and spend money on student debt. Perhaps this will benefit him by motivating college-educated voters to get out to the ballot boxes on election day, which would certainly help him in a time when his polling numbers are objectively suffering, but at what cost? Will those without a college education appreciate this spending? Will they appreciate that not only is their money being spent on people who already statistically outearn them, but also that it is being done in defiance of the courts?
These questions won’t be answered for sure until November, but one thing is clear even now. Biden IS losing support among white, non-college-educated voters and this will harm him politically if he can’t turn it around, something the Republicans undoubtedly hope to prevent.