AI Hype, Elevator Operators, and the Illusion of Awe

From spreadsheets to streaming, why technological change rarely feels as revolutionary as it sounds—and why AI may not be so different

AI Hype, Elevator Operators, and the Illusion of Awe

I read a couple of articles today on AI. It probably won’t shock you that both are predicting world and economic shattering changes from AI. One was arguing that it would bring about an almost utopian world where society returns to a more agrarian world of community activities and life outdoors. Sounds utterly horrifying to me.

The other was less utopian or dystopian than it was society-is-about-to-be-transformed-in-such-a-way- that-it-will-be-unrecognizable-in-a-decade-ish. If that’s even a word.

Living Through Change Feels Different Than Reading About It

When I see predictions like this, I can’t help but remember what I used to think about my grandmother when I was younger. She was born in 1900, and I remember thinking as a teenager that she’d seen so much: the rise of automobiles and flight, two world wars, a depression, and the moon landing. How amazed she must have been living in the modern world.

I’m older now, no, not as old as she was when I was a teenager, but old enough to understand a little better that experiencing historical change and technological advances over 50 years is less awe inspiring than one might think. If you could travel back in time and hand my 15-year-old self an iPhone, I’d have been speechless. “It’s like a Star Trek tricorder,” I no doubt would have thought.

Contrast that with the version of me that has seen all these changes. When my new TV arrived the other day, I was not struck by a sense of awe but rather annoyed that I had to download an app, create an account, and answer far too many annoying questions before I could use it. I used to be able to just plug a TV in a turn it on. Ya, I’m that old, but the lesson here is that change is usually gradual, and that gradual change looks amazing when you look back in time, but while you’re living through it, it’s mostly just another day.

The Rare Magic of Being Genuinely Amazed

Honestly, only one technological advance has truly amazed me: seeing the drag-and-drop functionality of the early spreadsheet software Lotus 1-2-3. Don’t get me wrong, I have been impressed by some advances; picture-in-picture functionality on TVs (what happened to that anyway?), playing Duke Nukem with friends on a LAN, and the first time I witnessed the resolution of a flat screen TV. These were all “cool,” but hardly awe-inspiring or life-changing. Which brings me back to AI.

Cool Tech, But Not Mind-Blowing…Yet

The availability of ChatGPT and Grok has led me to move away from Google when doing my research because they simply do a better job of answering my questions. Still, my first reaction to seeing AI in action was closer to “that’s pretty cool” than amazement.

Utopians vs. Dystopians

Which brings us to our utopian and dystopian friends. I think we can safely ignore the more optimistic predictions, not because they’re any less likely to come true, but because they’re less dangerous, less likely to induce panic. Few people lie awake at night worrying how they’re going to deal with life when everything is so awesome. I’ll keep my warnings about the utopian predictions simple: don’t count all that sweet, sweet UBI money just yet.

The dystopians deserve more of our attention, because what they predict breeds anxiety, if not despair, and as I said a few weeks ago, despite what they claim, they can’t predict the future.

I don’t know any AI doomers personally, so most of my thinking takes the form of internal debates; imaginary conversations, if you will (note: this is different than hearing voices in your head. I’m strange, not crazy). Here is one of those debates:

AI Doomer: You don’t understand. This could mean the end of computer programming as a profession!

Me: So? Programming didn’t become a serious occupation until about 50 years ago, and 100 years ago, it didn’t exist at all. Society functioned pretty well before it was an occupation. I’m sure it will be just fine if programming disappears. It won’t be the first job to disappear after all. We seem to be doing ok without elevator operators.

AD: That’s not even remotely the same. Elevator operator jobs were never a major occupation.

Me: Not true. It is estimated that between the 1940s and the early 1950s approximately 100,000 to 120,000 people were employed as elevator operators in the United States. Do you know how many pure computer programmers there are in the US today? 139,400. That’s fewer from a per capita standpoint.

AD: Fine, but the problem is much bigger than just programmers. It is predicted that AI will lead to 20% unemployment and wipe out half of white-collar jobs.

Me: In the 1960s through 1980s, ATMs, word processors, fax machines, and manufacturing robots emerged as important technologies in the workplace. Experts and economists predicted that ATMs would cut teller staffing needs by 20–30%, word processors would reduce typist and secretarial staffing needs by up to 40%, fax machines would cut administrative and clerical jobs related to document handling by 10–15%, and manufacturing robots would replace 10–20% of repetitive manufacturing jobs.

Do you know what these predictions all had in common? They were at best partially accurate and ignored the growth of new roles. There is no reason to think that AI-related predictions will be any better.

AD: What about creatives? Surely you agree that AI’s writing and video creation capabilities will destroy Hollywood and the art and writing industries.

Me: Transform? Yes. Destroy? No. I think you underestimate people’s desire for “bespoke” goods and services. Despite automated manufacturing, people still purchase handmade furniture, bespoke clothing, and customized automobiles/motorcycles.

A similar case could be made for the food industry. Despite the existence of fast food and improvements in frozen food, which are inexpensive and save time, people still go to expensive restaurants and subscribe to more services such as HelloFresh, which are more expensive and require more time than frozen meals.

The existence of television and movies did have a devastating impact on live theater, especially vaudeville, but even on a per capita basis, there are more jobs in the US entertainment industry today than there were prior to the rise of televisions. Never underestimate the need for people to be distracted and entertained.

Efficiency and cost aren’t everything. I suspect that the same phenomenon will apply to the “creative” industries.

The More Things Change…

Don’t get me wrong, the world will change, it always does, but as Jean-Baptiste Alphonse Karr once said, “Plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose” ("The more things change, the more they remain the same").

I won’t be recommending anyone run out and become a computer programmer, but I also don’t recommend they go into elevator operations and yet life goes on.

Breath into a bag and repeat after me, “it’s going to be fine.”

Note: AI tells me “society-is-about-to-be-transformed-in-such-a-way- that-it-will-be-unrecognizable-in-a-decade-ish” is not a word. So, I guess we can add “killjoy” to the list of activities that AI will soon eliminate. Perhaps the post-AI world will be a utopia after all.

Wrong Speak is a free-expression platform that allows varying viewpoints. All views expressed in this article are the author's own.