A peace that brings deflation

You'd think that the end of a conflict would lead to widespread celebration and cheers among the regular citizens of the sides involved, especially when both can claim to have avoided defeat. Yet among Iranians, following the announcement of a ceasefire with Israel, brokered by US President Donald Trump, the general feeling appears to be one of deflation and a kind of numbness.

For many Iranians, the 12-day conflict, although a time of great fear for loved ones, also represented a moment of hope that maybe, just maybe, the 46-year stranglehold that the Islamic Republic has had over the Iranian people may finally be about to loosen. There are some who still hope that such a moment may be at hand, with the likes of Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of the former Shah, declaring that the end of the Iranian people’s struggle is in its “final phase”.

Yet for many, as the Iranian authorities round up those perceived to have supported the Israelis on charges of “spying”, there are fears of another bloodbath, as seen in the aftermath of many previous occasions when the regime has come under threat but survived.

And as ever, at such times it is the regular Iranian people and not their oppressors who have most to lose if the moment of crisis ends with the Islamic Republic still in power, as seems to have happened once again. The fear instilled in the Iranian people may provide one explanation for why the streets were not flooded with protesters during the short-lived conflict - a question some were asking - alongside understandable fears of being bombed and the reality that many were fleeing their homes for the safety of more remote areas.

Iranians also know all too well what happens to those who rise up against the authorities during such times, if and when the regime finally recovers control. There are already reports of so-called “spies” being executed, and many more executions are feared.

The brutality of this regime is surely the primary reason why it has held on to power all these years, despite being wildly unpopular. So please spare a thought for any Iranians in your lives today, as they will no doubt be feeling mixed emotions, as they have done since the bombs began to fall - relief, of course, that family members are now safe, it seems, from any external threat; but fear and great disappointment that the ever-present internal threat to their lives and freedoms very much remains.

At times like this, I'm reminded of other historic and eventually successful struggles for freedom, such as Martin Luther King’s, and his pledge before the victory was won that he would not stop until “justice flows down like water, and righteousness like a mighty stream”. Many Iranians share a similar belief and determination that their day of victory will also one day arrive. But for now, for the great majority of Iranians, there is no doubt that the cessation of hostilities - with the Islamic Republic still at the helm - marks another huge disappointment.

I remember after my last visit to Iran, in 2016, coming away with a sense that the people had been afforded just enough freedom in their day-to-day lives - alongside a very real understanding of what may come should they challenge the status quo - to ensure there was little appetite among the masses to rise up.

It seemed as though many had come to believe that to protest was ultimately a futile act, which could only lead to further misery for themselves and their loved ones.

Since that time, however, there have been significant periods of protest, such as in 2019/20 and, most recently, the demonstrations of 2022/23 that followed the death in custody of a young woman, Mahsa Amini, arrested for her “bad hijab”.

In the years since Mahsa’s death, once again there has been a move from the regime to ameliorate the general populace, with a slightly less widely enforced crackdown on those women who may not wish to wear the veil - although those who choose to take this course of action still face the very real risk of arrest and prosecution - and a softer-faced president in the form of Masoud Pezeshkian, who at least says some nice things, even if they ultimately change little about Iranians’ day-to-day existence.

It seems to me that now, as in 2016, many Iranians again find themselves in a state of reluctant acceptance of their lot, allied to an understanding that, despite any hopes they may have for change, there appears no clear route for them to achieve it.

As in the uprisings of years past, amid the fears of falling missiles, the conflict with Israel seemed to offer Iranians genuine hope of a new and better future, as senior regime figures were toppled and the likes of Trump, Pahlavi, and Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu all floated the idea of regime change.

But now that the bombs have ceased and another round of anti-regime Iranians are being rounded up, those hopes of a future free from the shackles of the Islamic Republic will for many seem as far away as ever.

Wrong Speak is a free-expression platform that allows varying viewpoints. All views expressed in this article are the author's own.